Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Occam's Bullshit Detector

The simplest, and most likely explanation for this poll result (via Memeorandum) is that it is bogus:
President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.
The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama.
If I'm confident of anything in the coming election, it is that black people are going to vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. Of course, that won't stop people from reading into this outlier pole what they want to see. Maggie Gallagher thinks that it is about gay marriage. Glenn Reynolds who spent most of 2008(you know, when the economy collapsed) proclaiming "dude, where's my recession,"  thinks that it is about the economy. I think that it's bullshit.